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September 26, 2011

thinkpiece on jobs

Thinking aloud on Obama’s quest for jobs, with the added twist of the realization that a lot of the older jobs are becoming obsolete, done better by computer or machine.

As I recall my history, the same thing happened in the Industrial Revolution. First off, the machines made cottage industry — actually sewing or crafting in one’s cottage — obsolete because items could be manufactured faster and cheaper and more consistent.  For the items, it meant that consumers could rely on any package to be essentially identical to any other of the same product. Handcrafting went out the window.

Another consequence of the Industrial Age is that the now-unemployed in their homesteads flocked to the cities looking for work. And the cities, in the process of growing, needed road-builders, house-builders, landlords, developers, shops to service the incoming population, trucking to centralize food-shopping, yadda yadda. New jobs replacing the old, geared to what we came to know as the consumer society. (Broad strokes here, bear with me).

Fast-forward to today. Jobs are disappearing again, and many of them won’t be back. Skills I learned as a typesetter, from VariTyper to Selectric to word processor to dedicated typesetting equipment have mostly fallen away. The manuscripts of hundreds of pages to be retyped became digital files, freeing me to spend more time designing and much less on finger agility. Some publishers are scanning out-of-copyright books to sell, skipping type and design altogether. Textbooks are available in customized editions, or in separate chunks. I’m sure that similar changes have been occurring in other industries.

We may see a return to the “cottage” style of customized products, not all exactly the same, but fitting with individual requirements or wants. And perhaps rather than hordes of people descending on cities, the Internet may encourage decentralized, distributed tasks, so that the “office” may be a corner of your own home.

Having spent most of my life outside the corporate world, my perspective on “jobs” is decidedly different from the usual. What I see is that you end up doing something for somebody. It might not look like the traditional job.

The Entrepreneur looks afresh as the world, and perceives a need that is not recognized and is not being filled, then works out what or how to supply those people in need. Post-It notes filled a need. Paper clips. Fly swatters. Automobiles. Cruise ships. Tutoring. Raking leaves. Help with income tax forms.

Maybe you had a job sorting and filing in an office, you didn’t even know what it was that you were filing. But you knew who had to be satisfied so that you’d get paid. Or you learned how to process orders and pass it on to the shipping department. My speculation is that filing will change (or already has been converted) to digital, so the process may become completely automated. Processing orders, likewise, may undergo a change, but since money is involved, security issues with digitizing information become important. Will that job disappear as well?

What are the new jobs going to look like? My vision is that the nine-to-five job, though continuing, will give place to farmed-out freelance work to people who aren’t necessarily expert but who are self-reliant enough to know how to do specific tasks without supervision, and conscientious enough to do the work on time.

If a physical item is the desired result, the manufacturing  jobs will continue, though streamlined. What is left for people to do? Supervision and maintenance of the equipment. Decision-making. Thorough knowledge of the process, and backup procedures in case of a breakdown. Planning, anticipating, monitoring workflow. These are the kinds of skills that can’t be directly taught; they require intelligence, strategy, teamwork.

Customer service will probably grow in importance, as the relationship of producer and consumer becomes closer.

Trust becomes a vitally important commodity, as connections of employer-employee, buyer-seller become attenuated.

Just some thoughts on the shape of things coming. Comments welcome.

 

 

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